2* base plays on Buffalo, Over Houston
Buffalo at Seattle- Aware of the Bills road struggles, but we think we may have an improving team here against a team that may be fading. In 4 out of Seattle's last 5 games they have lost to Arizona, struggled at home with an injury-riddled Carolina squad, scored 12 points in their biggest game of the year vs. St.Louis, and needed an interception return with under a minute to play to defeat hapless Miami when the Dolphins were driving for the winning field goal. They haven't beaten a winning team all season, and their schedule overall has been very weak, with New England being the only team that currently has a winning record that the Seahawks have played. Buffalo's rushing D allows only 101 ypg and 3.7 ypr despite facing some pretty good rushing offenses, so we think that can at least make Alexander earn every yard. Their offense has improved with the emergence of RB Mcgahee, and will be attacking a very banged up Seattle D today. 18-3 system seals the deal for us here. Take the points.
Houston at Tennessee- Very dissapointed in Houston's effort and lack of killer instinct last week against Green Bay, so would only take Titans here. However, more interested in the total, as both defenses allowing over 4.4ypr, and Houston averaging 7.4 ypp and allowing 7.3ypp. Tennessee's numbers are low in both passing categories, but remember that Mcnair has missed a large chunk of games. The Titans D is riddled with injuries, especially in the secondary where 2 players are out, another player is questionable and 2 are playing hurt. We think Houston will have some success passing the ball, and we also look for Tennessee with Mcnair to be much more efficient than the first time these two played, when Tennessee moved the ball but Mcnair through 3 picks inside Houston's 35 yard line. The line has come down 3 points since that game, and we think there is some value here. Play Over
Philadelphia at NY Giants- We have been getting burned playing these big home dogs, and Andy Reid now 27-10-2$ against the division, and 29-11$ last 40 on the road. Still leaning to the points however, as the Giants are a positive yardage team and weather conditions could neutralize Philly's advantage at the QB position. Giants running for 4.6ypc and Philly allowing 4.4. At this price, those rushing stats are hard to ignore.
Washington at Pittsburgh- Lean to the Burgh, as that blitzing D will wreak havoc for whichever QB Washington has in the game. Home teams off back-back-road wins are strong plays. Reports changing on Staley, as Pittsburgh field is a mess right now, and Cowher skeptical about that hammy. Nevertheless, Pittsburgh running game hasn't missed a beat with Bettis toting the rock.
Cleveland at Cincinnati- Cincy has revenge from blowout Battle of Ohio loss a couple of weeks back, and are definitely exhibiting better current form than Brownies. However, there really isn't that much difference between these two teams, and a couple of systems point us to Cleveland. Pass.
Jacksonville at Minnesota- Huge matchup for two teams that need to win for to stay alive in playoff race. Leaning to Jacksonville, as Taylor could really get untracked against Minny D allowing 5.0 ypr. Jacksonville has already won at Tennesse, Buffalo, and Indy this year, and they believe they can beat anyone at anytime. Leftwich return a huge boost.
Tampa Bay at Carolina- The system books are telling us to play Carolina, but their injury bug is now spreading to the defensive side of the ball. Over may be worth a look.
San Diego at Kansas City- Have to wonder how many times Chiefs can muster a gut-check in heartbreaking season. Still, Chiefs 6-0-1 in last 7 vs. Bolts at Arrowhead, and if Priest Holmes were playing, I'd still believe KC's the better team despite the records. No priest, no ESI.
Atlanta at New Orleans- No opinion.
Miami at San Fran- Miami's still playing hard, while SF may have mailed it in. I pass when 2 teams this bad play each other. Then again, I'm thinking about passing on the NFL altogether nowadays.
Jets at Arizona- For some strange reason Dennis Green decided to make Shaun King his starting QB, even though Josh McCown led the team to 3 victories in 4 games (that doesn't happen to much in the Desert, ya know) Cards 9-3 $ last 12 as a home dog. Call that a lean if you want.
Oakland at Denver- Shanahan now 15-4 SU against the Raiders, and nothing I've seen lately from Oaktown makes me think they can hang here.
Buffalo at Seattle- Aware of the Bills road struggles, but we think we may have an improving team here against a team that may be fading. In 4 out of Seattle's last 5 games they have lost to Arizona, struggled at home with an injury-riddled Carolina squad, scored 12 points in their biggest game of the year vs. St.Louis, and needed an interception return with under a minute to play to defeat hapless Miami when the Dolphins were driving for the winning field goal. They haven't beaten a winning team all season, and their schedule overall has been very weak, with New England being the only team that currently has a winning record that the Seahawks have played. Buffalo's rushing D allows only 101 ypg and 3.7 ypr despite facing some pretty good rushing offenses, so we think that can at least make Alexander earn every yard. Their offense has improved with the emergence of RB Mcgahee, and will be attacking a very banged up Seattle D today. 18-3 system seals the deal for us here. Take the points.
Houston at Tennessee- Very dissapointed in Houston's effort and lack of killer instinct last week against Green Bay, so would only take Titans here. However, more interested in the total, as both defenses allowing over 4.4ypr, and Houston averaging 7.4 ypp and allowing 7.3ypp. Tennessee's numbers are low in both passing categories, but remember that Mcnair has missed a large chunk of games. The Titans D is riddled with injuries, especially in the secondary where 2 players are out, another player is questionable and 2 are playing hurt. We think Houston will have some success passing the ball, and we also look for Tennessee with Mcnair to be much more efficient than the first time these two played, when Tennessee moved the ball but Mcnair through 3 picks inside Houston's 35 yard line. The line has come down 3 points since that game, and we think there is some value here. Play Over
Philadelphia at NY Giants- We have been getting burned playing these big home dogs, and Andy Reid now 27-10-2$ against the division, and 29-11$ last 40 on the road. Still leaning to the points however, as the Giants are a positive yardage team and weather conditions could neutralize Philly's advantage at the QB position. Giants running for 4.6ypc and Philly allowing 4.4. At this price, those rushing stats are hard to ignore.
Washington at Pittsburgh- Lean to the Burgh, as that blitzing D will wreak havoc for whichever QB Washington has in the game. Home teams off back-back-road wins are strong plays. Reports changing on Staley, as Pittsburgh field is a mess right now, and Cowher skeptical about that hammy. Nevertheless, Pittsburgh running game hasn't missed a beat with Bettis toting the rock.
Cleveland at Cincinnati- Cincy has revenge from blowout Battle of Ohio loss a couple of weeks back, and are definitely exhibiting better current form than Brownies. However, there really isn't that much difference between these two teams, and a couple of systems point us to Cleveland. Pass.
Jacksonville at Minnesota- Huge matchup for two teams that need to win for to stay alive in playoff race. Leaning to Jacksonville, as Taylor could really get untracked against Minny D allowing 5.0 ypr. Jacksonville has already won at Tennesse, Buffalo, and Indy this year, and they believe they can beat anyone at anytime. Leftwich return a huge boost.
Tampa Bay at Carolina- The system books are telling us to play Carolina, but their injury bug is now spreading to the defensive side of the ball. Over may be worth a look.
San Diego at Kansas City- Have to wonder how many times Chiefs can muster a gut-check in heartbreaking season. Still, Chiefs 6-0-1 in last 7 vs. Bolts at Arrowhead, and if Priest Holmes were playing, I'd still believe KC's the better team despite the records. No priest, no ESI.
Atlanta at New Orleans- No opinion.
Miami at San Fran- Miami's still playing hard, while SF may have mailed it in. I pass when 2 teams this bad play each other. Then again, I'm thinking about passing on the NFL altogether nowadays.
Jets at Arizona- For some strange reason Dennis Green decided to make Shaun King his starting QB, even though Josh McCown led the team to 3 victories in 4 games (that doesn't happen to much in the Desert, ya know) Cards 9-3 $ last 12 as a home dog. Call that a lean if you want.
Oakland at Denver- Shanahan now 15-4 SU against the Raiders, and nothing I've seen lately from Oaktown makes me think they can hang here.
